The *FREE ARAB VOICE*
Sept 27, 2000

Just in!  A FAVian News Byte!

Mark the date above in history!

Today a Jordanian airliner will be the first Arab plane to break the air
embargo on Iraq.  Around noon local time in Amman, a Royal Jordanian airliner
will take off towards Saddam’s International Airport in Baghdad.  Aboard will
be somewhere between seventy to one hundred Jordanian officials, trade
unionists, athletes, doctors, and businessmen.

The United Nations has been NOTIFIED of the trip.

In the past, Jordan had submitted several requests to run regular flights
between Baghdad and Amman, but the requests were denied.  And this is in
spite of the fact that civilian air travel in and out of Iraq does not
constitute a violation of the embargo (see previous issues of the Free Arab
Voice for details on that issue).

On the tenth of October, another Jordanian flight to Baghdad is planned by
the Union of Professional Associations in Jordan in cahoots with Arab trade
unionists.   But until the recent past, efforts by the Union of Professional
Associations to fly a plane to Baghdad has been opposed by the Jordanian
regime.

On the other hand, the Syrian Minister of Industry, Ahmad Al Hammou,
announced yesterday in Damascus that a Syrian Arab Airliner might be going to
Saddam’s International Airport soon.  He said that Syrians have signed a
great deal of contracts with Iraq, and the issue is being mulled over right
now in official circles.

Since its inauguration on the seventeenth of August this year, Saddam’s
International Airport received two Russian flights, and one French flight
less than a week ago.  In the meantime, India has announced that it might be
sending soon a civilian plane to Baghdad too.

An Analysis of the Official Jordanian Move
================================

It is obvious then that the air embargo on Iraq is crumbling.  What is
interesting though, is the official Jordanian dash to be the first Arab
regime to break the air travel ban in direct defiance of the dictates of the
United States, the largest donor of financial aid to Jordan.

It is not surprising that the Jordanian people would be totally in favor of
lifting the embargo as well as the siege on Iraq.  Jordanians of different
leanings have been some of the most ardent supporters of lifting the siege,
but the regime has hitherto turned a deaf ear to popular demands to break the
siege.  Today, the popularity of the Jordanian regime soars high on the
street just as the Royal Jordanian Airliner prepares to fly the friendly
skies towards Baghdad.  In fact, opposition parties representing the colors
of most of the political spectrum are showering the regime with praise for
the bold step.

What has prompted the daring official Jordanian move at a time when  larger
Arab states like Egypt and Syria have balked?

There is no question that popular support is one of the primary benefits the
government of the newly appointed Prime Minister Abul Raghib will reap from
breaking the siege.  But this is not the main reason for the official
Jordanian move, for Arab regimes rarely put the interests and the feelings of
their people at the top of their agenda.  At the top of their agenda is the
preservation of the strategic interests of the Arab regime in question, and
this was no exception.  Infrequently though, the best interests of the Arab
regime and its people coincide.  Flying a civilian flight from Amman to
Baghdad was a case in point.

In the eighties, Iraq was the largest export market for Jordanian products.
Jordanians had invested close to two billion dollars in industry and
infrastructure designed to serve the Iraqi market.  With the imposition of
the siege on Iraq, the Jordanian economy suffered greatly.  But as the
Jordanian regime partook in implementing the siege on Iraq, it opened up to
“Israel”, and undertook a harsh prescription, an ‘Economic Adjustment
Package’, that was administered under the auspices of the World Bank (WB) and
the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The promise that peace with “Israel” will bring prosperity never
materialized.  The much more advanced and shielded “Israeli” economy was
never a substitute for the Iraqi market and was never meant to be.  The
opposite in fact was true.

The promise of a huge influx of foreign direct investment as a result of
abiding by the painful prescriptions of the IMF and the WB never materialized
either.  Those interested in investing in the Arab region found larger
markets and better opportunities in Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, and
Saudi Arabia.  In fact, more private investment capital left Jordan in the
last five years or so than went in.

In the meantime, Jordan was carrying a heavy international debt totaling
about 114% of its Gross Domestic Product.  Servicing that debt came out of
heavy taxes levied on an already lethargic Jordanian economy.  Still, the
principal barely went down a hundred million dollars, out of a humungous sum
of about eight billion owed, and mainly as a result of recent improvement in
the exchange rate with major European currencies.

Now the surge in oil prices came, and that was the straw that broke the
camel’s back.  Jordan is not an oil-producing country.  If it had to pay
international prices for all the oil it consumes, it would go broke in a
month.  But Iraq was aware of that it seems, and therefore, in the midst of
the official Jordanian implementation of the siege on Iraq, Iraq kept on
giving about half of the oil Jordan needs totally FOR FREE.  Years went by,
and the Iraqi government kept on doing this without flinching.

The recent increase in oil prices put Iraq in the position to suffocate the
fragile Jordanian economy.  Should Iraq choose to withhold the free shipments
of oil, which Iraq really didn’t have to just give away when it could have
sold them for much higher prices on the international  (black) market, the
Jordanian economy would have gone to hell in a splash.  There was simply too
much to lose and too much to gain.  THE STABILITY OF THE REGIME WAS IN THE
BALANCE.  Hence, it seemed better for the Jordanian regime to score points
with Iraq and with Jordanians for being the first Arab regime to break the
siege, than to abide doggedly by an embargo that looks like it’s tumbling
down, and that’s killing the Jordanian economy even more than the Iraqi’s.
Thus, the Jordanian government took the initiative and seized the chance.

At least in this case, the interests of this Arab regime do not conflict with
those of the Arab people : )

The Free Arab Voice

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